Gift and Novelty Economics Forecast :: essays research papers

frugal ForecastsThe retail consumer market must take into affection many index forecasts that help estimate what the economic market leave be desire for the future. The following information contains two or more forecasts based on our teams six pre-selected indicators. This team will provide reconciliation between both forecasts and will apply economic theory in deciding which whizz may be the most relevant to the gift and novelty industry.gross home(prenominal) productInformation retrieved from the Economist Intelligence Unit info Services (2005), the gross domestic product (in billions) is expected to be 13034.5 in 2006 and 13766.2 in 2007. However, according to the data retrieved from the unrelenting Chip economic indicator, the forecasted GDP (in billions) is 12907 for 2006 and 13617 in 2007 (The White House, 2005).Foreign enthronization is a factor that is increasing the overall GDP. Over a dot of time this will eventually bring higher gross domestic investitures, r esulting in more productive physical capital in the U.S economy. The spare capital will make labor more productive, which provides an increase in GDP and wages. Based on this information, it is thought that the EIU forecast is more melio gait than the Blue Chip indicator.Un roleUnemployment is another area that can affect this industry. Data retrieved from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) projects that the unemployment rate in 2006 will be at 5% (Economist Intelligence Unit, 2005). Data derived from the Blue Chip consensus indicator, however, projects the unemployment rate for 2006 will be at 5.2% (The White House, 2005).By taking into consideration many outside indicators, such as the GDPthat show a slow but constant growth, will allow private investment to remain constant. This will encourage private industry to maintain their employment at a constant level. In understanding what this nation faces in the near future, this team recognizes that many of the Baby Boomers will r etire, which reinforces the premise that unemployment will eventually stay at or fall below 5 %. Housing StartsHousing starts seems to be one of the most visible in regards to economic growth. Based on the analytical tables provided by National tie-in of Home Builders (NAHB) and Steele Analytics, 2005 and 2006, housing starts will decline slimly. NAHB shows that 2005 housing starts (in thousands) at 1,969 change magnitude in 2006 to 1,855 (NAHB, 2005). Steele Analytics also shows housing starts (in thousands) for 2005 start at 1,883 with a slight decrease in 2006 to 1,825 (Steele Analytics, 2005).It